＞【Microsoft Copilot】 ＞### 6. Post‑hegemony instability and “rogue states”
＞**Affirmative claim:**
＞If U.S. hegemony erodes, states previously constrained by American power will act more aggressively, increasing global predation and instability.
＞- **Historical analogy:**
＞The late Roman Empire’s decline saw frontier peoples and rival powers exploit imperial weakness. While not a perfect analogy, the pattern—**withdrawal of a hegemon → power vacuum → predation**—is well‑established in international relations.
＞- **Current multipolar trends:**
＞ - Rising military and economic power of non‑Western states. ＞ - Increasing challenges to U.S. norms and sanctions. ＞ - Regional conflicts where U.S. deterrence is less decisive.
＞- **Role of U.S. internal weakness:**
＞Deindustrialization, dual economy, and financialized capitalism erode the material base and political will needed to sustain global order.
＞**Refutation of negative side:**
＞The negative side might argue “multipolarity will be peaceful.” The affirmative can respond that **power vacuums rarely stay peaceful**; without a credible hegemon, revisionist or “rogue” actors face fewer constraints. Thus, the internal economic decay described earlier is not just a domestic issue—it has **global security consequences**.
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＞【Microsoft Copilot】
＞### 6. Post‑hegemony instability and “rogue states”
＞**Affirmative claim:**
＞If U.S. hegemony erodes, states previously constrained by American power will act more aggressively, increasing global predation and instability.
＞- **Historical analogy:**
＞The late Roman Empire’s decline saw frontier peoples and rival powers exploit imperial weakness. While not a perfect analogy, the pattern—**withdrawal of a hegemon → power vacuum → predation**—is well‑established in international relations.
＞- **Current multipolar trends:**
＞ - Rising military and economic power of non‑Western states.
＞ - Increasing challenges to U.S. norms and sanctions.
＞ - Regional conflicts where U.S. deterrence is less decisive.
＞- **Role of U.S. internal weakness:**
＞Deindustrialization, dual economy, and financialized capitalism erode the material base and political will needed to sustain global order.
＞**Refutation of negative side:**
＞The negative side might argue “multipolarity will be peaceful.” The affirmative can respond that **power vacuums rarely stay peaceful**; without a credible hegemon, revisionist or “rogue” actors face fewer constraints. Thus, the internal economic decay described earlier is not just a domestic issue—it has **global security consequences**.
＞---
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/6wb0ul48o72ylx4ism2f7/Polish_20260425_112351575-1-1-1-1.png?rlkey=y3nybhhlrf5pgnfughmmls7gc&st=n05czhqn&dl=0