トランプ保護関税政策の効果(見通し)

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【You】
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>米FRB 最新経済報告 幅広い産業で関税政策の影響懸念
2025年3月6日(木) 8時35分 NHK
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20250306/k10014741041000.html

>アメリカのFRB=連邦準備制度理事会は最新の経済報告を公表し、経済活動はわずかに拡大したとの認識を示しました。

>一方、幅広い産業でトランプ大統領の関税政策による影響が懸念されていると指摘しています。

>FRBは2025年3月5日(水)、全米12の地区の連邦準備銀行が各地域の企業への聞き取りなどをもとにまとめた最新の経済報告を公表しました。

>この中では全体の経済活動について、ことし2025年1月中旬以降、わずかに拡大したという認識を示しました。

>一方、石油化学製品から事務用機器にいたるまで製造業の関係者はトランプ大統領による貿易政策の変更がもたらす潜在的な影響に懸念を表明したとしています。

>また建設業界では一部の関係者が、関税が木材やそのほかの資材価格に与える影響を憂慮していると指摘しています。

>さらに、労働市場では複数の地区で、移民やそのほかの問題をめぐる不確実性の高まりが現在と将来の労働需要に影響を及ぼしているという見方を示しました。

>今後数か月間の全体的な経済の見通しについてはやや楽観的だったとしていますがトランプ大統領の政策に対する警戒感が高まっていることを改めて示す形になりました。

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**[Google Gemini]**
The background to why the Protestant Congregationalist (Kumiai Kyokai) tradition and modern liberal theology approached and absorbed Marxist/communist theory and social analysis lies in strong affinities and structural factors in the realms of intellectual history, theology, and organizational structure.

Christianity itself (particularly the official principles of mission schools, etc.) did not officially accept the atheism or materialist conception of history of Marxist communism.

However, from the late 19th century to the mid-20th century, a strong movement emerged on the side of Protestant liberal theology to approach Marxism and incorporate its social criticism.

The main background and reasons can be organized into the following five points.

**1. The “Social Gospel” movement and the realization of the Kingdom of God on earth**

In the latter half of the 19th century, as the Industrial Revolution advanced, poverty, labor problems, and urban class divisions became severe. In response, liberal theologians centered in American Congregationalist and Baptist circles launched the “Social Gospel” movement.

- Pursuit of justice on earth:
Whereas traditional orthodox theology emphasized “the salvation of the individual soul through personal faith (salvation in the afterlife),” liberal theology set as its theological goal “the transformation of the social structure of this world itself through the love and justice of Christ.”

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- Reception as a tool for reforming social structures:
For Social Gospel thinkers, Marxist social analysis—which structurally criticized capitalist exploitation and inequality and advocated social transformation—was extremely attractive and highly compatible as “an effective theoretical and practical tool for correcting unjust social structures and bringing God’s justice to earth.”

**2. Doctrinal dismantling and ethicization in liberal theology**

From the latter half of the 19th century onward, liberal theology, while accepting modern rationalism and scientific knowledge, symbolized and weakened the supernatural aspects of traditional Christian doctrines (the virgin birth of Christ, bodily resurrection, sin and original sin, hell and eschatology, etc.).

- Shift from “doctrine” to “ethics and social practice”:
As a result of the retreat of doctrinal dogma, the core of Christianity was narrowed to “the ethics taught by Jesus (neighborly love, justice, and the relief of the weak).”

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- Fluidization of boundaries with secular thought:
With the loosening of theological doctrinal constraints, the boundary with secular ideologies that likewise advocated “the realization of an ideal society” and “the liberation of the weak” (socialism and Marxism) became ambiguous, completing the theological groundwork that made it easy to incorporate Marxist views of history and critiques of capital.

**3. Organizational structure of Congregationalism and its “democratic and reformist genes”**

The historical and organizational characteristics of Congregationalism itself also played a major role.

- Democratic and anti-hierarchical church polity:
Congregationalism rejects hierarchical systems of top-down authority (such as the papacy or episcopacy) and is operated through the independent, deliberative self-governance of each congregation’s members in a form of direct democracy.

- Puritanism and the spirit of social reform:
Congregationalism, connected to the English Puritan Revolution and the founding of America (the Pilgrim Fathers of the Mayflower), traditionally possesses a “spirit of criticism toward existing authority and systems” and a reformist orientation aimed at “the autonomous construction of an ideal society” (Puritan social construction).

This mental structure of “overthrowing the present system and building an egalitarian utopia with one’s own hands” strongly resonated with the ideals of revolutionary movements and workers’ self-liberation movements advocated by socialism and communism.

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**4. Shared discursive pattern: the “prophetic tradition” and “liberation of the weak”**

The prophets of the Old Testament (Amos, Isaiah, etc.) fiercely denounced the injustice of kings and the wealthy who oppressed the poor and called for social justice.

Liberal theology emphasizes this “prophetic critical spirit” of the Old Testament.

Meanwhile, Marxism also criticizes the exploitation of workers by capitalists and advocates the liberation of the proletariat (the propertyless class).

For theologians, the social criticism of Marxist communism was easily interpreted and connected as “the voice of the Old Testament prophets appearing in the present age” or “a movement seeking to embody the love of Christ in social structures.”

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**5. “Christian socialism” and the 20th-century context (the lineage leading to liberation theology)**

In the 20th century, this current crystallized into concrete intellectual movements such as “Christian socialism” in Europe, America, and Japan, and later “liberation theology” in Latin America.

- Dialectical theologians such as Karl Barth were involved in socialist movements in their early years and were called “red pastors.”
- Leading 20th-century American liberal theologians such as Reinhold Niebuhr also extensively incorporated Marxist class analysis in their early construction of social ethics.

**Summary**

Liberal theology (especially reformist and democratic denominations such as Congregationalism) accepted Marxism not because it accepted materialism or atheism as they were.

Rather, it was the result of the convergence of theological and historical demands:

- Prioritizing this-worldly ethics and social reform over doctrine (dogma)
- Evaluating Marxist “class analysis” and “structural criticism” as tools for realizing Christian justice and love on earth
- Compatibility with the system-critical and democratic social-construction spirit unique to Congregationalism

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【You】
関東学院大学当局や同志社大学当局、更には会衆派プロテスタントやバプテスト教会(プロテスタント)が公式に赤軍派の活動を肯定したことは無いと言いますが、関東学院大学当局や同志社大学当局、更には会衆派プロテスタントやバプテスト教会(プロテスタント)が赤軍派に活動の場を与えたことで、赤軍派は生き延びることが出来、結果として『よど号ハイ·ジャック事件』(1970年)や『テルアビブ·ロッド空港無差別テロ事件』(1972年)を“成功”させることが出来た訳である。

https://gyazo.com/fd35ad628fcb3ad5323c7d4b9215bde9

公式に赤軍派の活動を肯定したことは無いからと言って、実際に活動の場を与えた関東学院大学当局や同志社大学当局、更には会衆派プロテスタントやバプテスト教会(プロテスタント)が赤軍派のテロ行為に関して全く責任が無いとは言えない。

【You】
会衆派プロテスタントの同志社大学やバプテスト教会(プロテスタント)の関東学院大学の経済学部では、圧倒的多数の講義で、近代経済学ではなくマルクス経済学が教えられていたことが分かっている。

https://gyazo.com/4791494f6838a0c88ed1b9cab0177b6b

『プロレタリア暴力革命は資本主義の必然的帰結だ』と説くマルクスの資本論や共産党宣言を教える教員が居て、その教えを受ける学生が居れば、教え子の中からプロレタリア暴力革命の一環として赤軍派のハイ·ジャック事件やロッド空港無差別テロ事件に走る者が出ることは或る程度予見できた筈だ。

戦後のマルクス経済学者を代表する大内兵衛は、ロシア革命や国共内戦というプロレタリア暴力革命を経て成立したソ連や中華人民共和国を実地に視察した上で、1956年、社会主義について「私も社会主義を勉強すること実に40年であるが、なにぶん進歩がおそく、社会主義がユートピアであるか科学であるかは、今まではっきりわからなかった。しかし、ここへ来て、いろいろの見学をして見て、それが科学であることはしかとわかった」と述べた[21]。また、経済学の分野に関しては「ロシアの経済学は二十世紀の後半において進歩的な特色のある学問として世界の経済学界で相当高い地位を要求するようになるだろう。……こういう歴史の変革のうちに経済学者としていよいよ光彩を加える名はレーニンとスターリンでありましょう」と、ソ連の計画経済を高く評価し、レーニン、スターリンの両名を経済学者として激賞した[21]。(Wikipedia)

『プロレタリア暴力革命は資本主義の必然的帰結だ』と説くマルクスの共産党宣言や資本論を教えられた教え子が、例え全員ではなく極一部だったとしても、プロレタリア暴力革命の一環としてハイ·ジャック事件や無差別テロ事件を起こしたのであれば、当該教師(共産主義マルクス経済学者)は殺人の教唆犯となるのは当然であろう。

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【You】
怨嗟原因や強盗目的の国内刑法上の個別·具体的な殺人事件における教唆犯と、マルクス共産主義テロ組織による組織的な粛清(大量虐殺)を混同すべきではない。

マルクス共産主義テロリストによる粛清(大量虐殺)は、ナチス·ドイツによるホロコーストと同様、国際法上の人道に対する罪を構成するからだ。

他者にマルクス共産主義を植え付け、組織的なテロ行為(暴力革命)の正当性、歴史的必然性を繰り返し刷り込んだ者は、個別·具体的な相当因果関係が証明されなくても、マルクス共産主義団体(例えば共産主義マルクス経済学を所属する学生に組織的に刷り込む経済学部)内部での上下関係(単位·学位授与権を持つ教官と学生)さえ証明されれば、国際法上の人道に対する罪で国際法の裁きを下すことが可能となる。

『プロレタリア暴力革命は資本主義の必然的帰結だ』と妄信するアメリカのマルクス共産主義者が、今日まで正々堂々と『マルクス共産主義者』を名乗らずに『民主社会主義者』だとか『民主党員』だとかいう隠語を用いて世間の目を欺こうとして来たのは、“反革ブルジョア分子”に対する組織的な粛清(大量虐殺)を繰り返して来たプロレタリア暴力革命の正当性を喧伝する行為が国際法上の人道に対する罪に該当するため、訴追の対象となるという後ろめたさの裏返しであろう。

https://gyazo.com/65f696ce135e8b1ff17b9b1ebebf8139

プロレタリア暴力革命を正当化するマルクス共産主義に著しく傾いた大内兵衛が総長を務めたような大学で、「資本主義者、すなわち反革ブルジョア分子がプロレタリア暴力革命によって粛清される運命を辿ることに歴史的必然性が認められる」と繰り返し学生に刷り込めば、例え個別·具体的なユダヤ人殺傷方法を教唆しなかったとしてもナチス·ドイツの指導層と同じように、人道に対する罪で裁かれる筋合いである。

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>[You]
Although it is claimed that the administrations of Kanto Gakuin University and Doshisha University—as well as Congregationalist Protestants and Baptist churches (Protestants)—never officially endorsed the activities of the Red Army Faction (Sekigun-ha), the fact remains that by providing them with a space for their operations, these university administrations, along with the Congregationalist Protestants and Baptist churches, enabled the Red Army Faction to survive.

As a result, the group was able to successfully carry out the Yodo-go Hijacking Incident (1970) and the Tel Aviv Lod Airport Massacre (1972).

Simply claiming that they never officially endorsed the Red Army Faction's activities does not absolve the administrations of Kanto Gakuin University and Doshisha University, nor the Congregationalist Protestants and Baptist churches who actually provided the venue for their operations, from moral and historical responsibility regarding these acts of terrorism.

[You]
It is a known fact that at Doshisha University, associated with Congregationalist Protestantism, and Kanto Gakuin University, associated with the Baptist Church, Marxist economics—rather than modern economics—was taught in the vast majority of lectures within their faculties of economics.

When faculty members teach Marx's Capital and The Communist Manifesto, which advocate that "proletarian violent revolution is an inevitable outcome of capitalism," to impressionable students, it should have been foreseeable to a certain extent that some of those students would resort to acts of violence, such as the Red Army Faction's hijacking incident and the Lod Airport massacre, as part of a proletarian violent revolution.

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Hyoe Ouchi, a leading postwar Marxist economist, personally visited the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China—nations established through proletarian violent revolutions such as the Russian Revolution and the Chinese Civil War.

Following his tour in 1956, he remarked regarding socialism:

"I have studied socialism for a full forty years, but my progress was slow, and until now I could not clearly tell whether socialism was a utopia or a science. However, after coming here and observing various things, I have firmly come to realize that it is indeed a science." [21]

Furthermore, regarding the field of economics, he highly evaluated the Soviet planned economy and praised both Lenin and Stalin as economists, stating:

"In the second half of the 20th century, Russian economics will come to demand a fairly prominent position in the global economic community as a discipline with progressive characteristics...

The names that will gain ever greater brilliance as economists amid such historical transformations will undoubtedly be Lenin and Stalin." [21] (Wikipedia)

If students who were taught Marx's The Communist Manifesto and Capital—which preach that "proletarian violent revolution is an inevitable outcome of capitalism"—went on to commit hijacking incidents and indiscriminate acts of terrorism as part of a proletarian violent revolution, even if they were only a tiny minority rather than the entire student body, it is only natural that the teachers in question (Communist Marxist economists) should be held liable as instigators (abettors) of murder.

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[You]
One must not confuse the instigation of individual, concrete murder cases under domestic criminal law—motivated by personal resentment or robbery—with the systematic purges (massacres) carried out by Marxist-Communist terrorist organizations.

This is because purges (massacres) conducted by Marxist-Communist terrorists constitute crimes against humanity under international law, akin to the Holocaust committed by Nazi Germany.

Those who command organizational acts of terrorism based on Marxist-Communism can be brought to justice under international law as suspects of crimes against humanity—even without proving a concrete, individual causal relationship—so long as the hierarchical chain of command within the Marxist-Communist organization is established.

The reason why American Marxist-Communists—who fanatically believe that "proletarian violent revolution is an inevitable outcome of capitalism"—have to this day avoided openly identifying themselves as "Marxist-Communists," opting instead to deceive the public using euphemisms such as "democratic socialists" or "Democrats," is likely out of fear of being prosecuted for crimes against humanity under international law for repeatedly instigating systematic purges (massacres) by Marxist-Communist terrorist organizations against "counter-revolutionary bourgeois elements."

If a university—such as one presided over by a president like Hyoe Ouchi, who leaned overwhelmingly toward Marxist-Communism—repeatedly indoctrinates students with the view that capitalists, or counter-revolutionary bourgeois elements, are historically destined to be purged through proletarian violent revolution, its leadership stands to be judged for crimes against humanity in the same manner as the leadership of Nazi Germany, even if they did not teach specific methods for killing Jewish people.

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